Hi Rider Fan,
The links you provided are very useful. But they don't confirm that "30% according to the link below (25% according to ccfa site link above) of surgical patients will need another surgery in their lifetime. Optimistic spin: Odds are that most people who have surgery will only have 1 surgery."
Actually, the CCFA site said, as you noted, that 50% of patients will have a recurrence within five years. Then it says "about" half of those with recurrent symptoms will have a second surgery. It doesn't say whether it is talking about those with recurrent symptoms in five years, or six, seven, etc., or a lifetime. It also doesn't identify what percentage of patients have a recurrence in 6 years, 7 years, etc...presumably, these stats are higher than 50%. Because it is unclear about the lifetime chance of a second surgery, the 30% stat is not supported...this seems to be only the best case scenario, looking at only five years out from the first surgery.
http://www.wjgnet.com/1007-9327/11/3971.pdf - This link says, "Post-operative recurrence rates defined by clinical symptoms are 17-55% at 5 years, 32-76% at 10 years and 72-73% at 20 years. The rates of recurrence requiring re-operation are 11-32% at 5 years, 20-44% at 10 years, and 36-55% at 20 years." Aside from the fact that these stats are all over the place (32-76%?? at 10 years), it concludes, "Thus, the re-operation rate tends to steadily increase with time, reaching approximately 50% at 20 years after surgery." 50%, not 30%.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15362027 - This link doesn't talk about second surgeries, but does say post-op disease recurrence can range between 34% and 70% in just 24 months.
There are is a lot of great info in these links -- thanks! But the 30% lifetime stat you came up with is just not supported by these links. Furthermore, none of these articles talk about third, fourth, or fifth (and more) surgeries.
Post Edited (njmom) : 2/15/2009 9:25:20 PM (GMT-7)
Rider Fan -
The thing to remember is that surgery does not cure Crohn's, It only removes the affected part of your intestines. The best way to prevent "hopefully" further surgery is to get on a maintenance schedule and follow it faithfully.
I've gone a couple of years, 5 years, seven years even as long as nine years without surgery but in my case it always came back, some of those times were without any drugs but I finally learned my lesson. Twenty one of two years ago I decided to go on maintenance drugs forever, never had another problem to speak of.
I've had severe Crohn's over 53 years now, 9 surgeries and never let any of it slow me down. I never read or listen to stats on what can happen, when, how and why cause it just doesn't happen that way, everybody is different. If you want to spend time researching, research your disease, how and why things happen, what can we do to prevent them from happening. The more you know about Crohn's the better off you will be. In my case, I learned how to control inflammation of the intestines and have lived the good life since.
I eat anything I want, Drink anything I want, I even smoke and now I'm even thinking about getting marrried again, and I'm only 81 years old since 2/6/09. Crohn's never stood a chance with me.