IFR = INFECTION Fatality Rate, the same as CFR (Case fatality rate).
If IFR 0.6%, that does NOT mean 0.6% of the WORLD population will die, BUT it means that 0.6% of the INFECTED can die.
By now, it seems most of the areas that had been highly infected by Covid19 in Europe had about
a 10% to max 20% rate of infection in the population (80-90% of the population have NEGATIVE antibody tests).
So you got to consider 0.6% of 10-20% of the population, not 0.6% of the ENTIRE population!
For the US, that means: from 198,000 to 396,000 deaths could happen if IFR 0.6%, if the virus is let loose (no lockdown, no protective measures!)
To have a comparison:
647,000 Americans die of heart disease every year
600,000 Americans die of cancer every year
160,000 Americans die of respiratory diseases every year
56,000 die of influenza and pneumonia
How much is Covid19 dangerous?
It is dangerous, yes, Covid may kill 4-8x more people than influenza-pneumonia already kills, if IFR is 0.6%.
However, the German virologist and epidemiologist Prof Streeck did a very detailed study on the Wuhan of Germany, a place called Gangelt, and said mortality rate was 0.37% (more than 1,000 people tested, about
500 households, a lot of exams were done, repeated etc).
There at Gangelt, the percentage of infected (current and past infections) was 15%.
Prof Streeck does not believe IFR can be higher than 0.5%. The margin of error would bring IFR from 0.2 to 0.5 max, he says. In Gangelt, it was 0.37%.
The virus is the same, he says.
If it kills more elsewhere, it could be because medical care is the problem, not the virus.
It could also mean there are more people infected, but symptomless, so people are not counting these 'shadow' cases.
It could also be that the population is more sick due to pollution or other diseases?
Note that Gangelt was THE worst place in Germany for the Covid19 infection, so elsewhere, there was probably much LESS people infected.
In Germany and Switzerland, there was ABSOLUTELY no extra deaths compared to previous years (Jan to April). Our epidemics finished by May.
In previous years, there were years that were more lethal, such as 2018 in Germany.
In Switzerland, 2015 was more lethal than 2020.
If our governments wanted to save us from dying, why don't they do measures to prevent heart disease and cancer, such as banning junk food, pesticides, fungicides, nano particles, GMOs, glyphosates, mercury in drugs /cosmetics and food, arsenic in pesticides, plastics in food etc?
Heart disease and cancer kill 1,247,000 Americans every year, and what is the government doing?
Covid19, if let loose, no measure of protection, will kill maximum of 396,000 Americans, which is a lot, but still small compared to heart disease and cancer.
While for Covid19, whole economies are blocked, no schools, no work, no freedom to move to save the population.
What is done against heart disease and cancer?
Why nothing is done to make our food and water better, for example?
Post Edited (Shasta) : 7/8/2020 7:11:23 AM (GMT-6)