Here we go again, does it or doesn't it?

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Pelahatchie
Regular Member


Date Joined Jul 2007
Total Posts : 86
   Posted 6/24/2009 12:23 PM (GMT -6)   
 
Age 45 at DX
 
DX 8/05 Gleason 5, Mayo clinic Second Opinion Gleason 6, PSA 2.8
 
Da Vinci surgery Dr. Dasari, Centennial Nashville 9/24/05
 
Pathology Report Gleason 6, 15 % on left side only very near to the edge of capsule, too close to call on margins, doc's said to watch it very closely, final decision T2A
 
PSA's have basically ranged from <.04 to .05 for two years.
 
no E.D. and no Incontinence, feel very blessed
 
PSA Nov 07 = .06
 
PSA Dec 10th 07 =.07
 
PSA Jan 4th 2008= .1
 
Started Guided IMRT on January 7th, 2008 to treat prostate bed and lymph nodes, completed on March 6th, 2008
 
PSA April 18th 2008 =.03
 
PSA August 18th 2008 = .01 or less, test only goes down to .01


CapnLarry
Regular Member


Date Joined Apr 2009
Total Posts : 75
   Posted 6/24/2009 1:35 PM (GMT -6)   
I think the extract summed it up well: "provocative." In other words, "maybe." As the review noted, it was a tiny study (28 guys) over a very short period. In addition, they were only measuring biomarkers, not disease progression--the point being that there are compounds that suppress, for example, PSA levels, while the disease continues to run wild. I hope they do a bigger, randomized study and find out for sure. Until then, you're throwing blind.

Bad science is made at the threshold of detectability.
Larry Shick
Personal homepage incl. PCa story: www.sv-moira.com.
01/09: Diagnosed (age 60) biopsy PSA 4.4, free PSA 9%, T2c stage, Gleason 7 (3+4), 7 of 14 cores; 6'2", 200 lbs.
03/09: Robotic surgery (Dr. Kawachi, City of Hope) 47 gms, 10% involved, staging/Gleason unchanged (pT2cNXMX), margins clear, no ECE/sem ves involvement, fully continent from day 1, some success w/Viagra 50mg/day.
Followup: 05/09 0.006


CapnLarry
Regular Member


Date Joined Apr 2009
Total Posts : 75
   Posted 6/24/2009 6:17 PM (GMT -6)   
There's another way to look at small studies.

When I was younger I had a temporary interest in ESP (say, reading hidden cards), from the skeptic's point of view. One of the things I learned was that, when you have a small study, you typically have a threshold of statistical significance of maybe 5%. That means that, if you were to run a study 20 times, in one of those you'd get a statistically significant result supporting your hypothesis EVEN WHEN the underlying facts/mechanism were contrary to your hypothesis.

So the way the ESP guys do it, they just keep trying, maybe with different volunteers, doesn't matter. Roughly one time in 20 they'll get a "statistically significant" result, and THAT'S what they report to the uncritical press. Just don't mention the other 19 tries.

Now for PC drugs, maybe they re-jigger the formulation, or the dosage, or whatever. I'm sure it's all done in good faith. I'm sure they're convinced that THIS time, they've got it right and they really have achieved a cure.

But maybe it's just one in 20.
Larry Shick
Personal homepage incl. PCa story: www.sv-moira.com.
01/09: Diagnosed (age 60) biopsy PSA 4.4, free PSA 9%, T2c stage, Gleason 7 (3+4), 7 of 14 cores; 6'2", 200 lbs.
03/09: Robotic surgery (Dr. Kawachi, City of Hope) 47 gms, 10% involved, staging/Gleason unchanged (pT2cNXMX), margins clear, no ECE/sem ves involvement, fully continent from day 1, some success w/Viagra 50mg/day.
Followup: 05/09 0.006

Post Edited (CapnLarry) : 6/24/2009 6:23:38 PM (GMT-6)

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