I'll come out of my self-imposed exile this once to make a point about the MSK post-op nomogram.
Look at the difference between the inputs for the MSK nomogram and, say, the Han Table (Johns Hopkins). The latter asks only for your last pre-op PSA reading, your post-op Gleason score, and whether your PCa was organ confined or not. That's it. None of those will change over time after your operation.
In sharp contrast, the MSK post-op nomogram asks for your PSA reading, your age, your Gleason score, the year of your prostatectomy, whether you had positive surgical margins, whether you had extra capsular extension, whether you had seminal vesicle involvement, whether you had lymph node involvement, whether you had neoadjuvant hormones, whether you had prior radiation therapy - and, critically important for your situation, the number of months post-op free of biochemical recurrence.
Thus, the fact that you (like me) have gone 23 months post-op with undetectable readings is good - not a guarantee of anything by any means, but still everything considered a good thing - and the Johns Hopkins Table does not take that into account.
In my opinion, Scardino has an even better predictive diagram, although the latest version of which I am aware stops with surgeries performed in 2004. His predictions are very similar to those of the MSK Tables, probably not surprisingly.
I would be very interested in what Mel (compiler), our resident mathematician, has to say about the various nomograms.
No family history of PC. PSA reading in 2000 was around 3.0 . Annual PSA readings gradually rose; no one said anything to me until my PSA reached 4.0 in September 2007, at which point my internist advised me to see a urologist.
Urologist advised a repeat PSA reading in six months = 4.0 . Diagnosed May 2008 at age 56 as a result of 12 core biopsy. Biopsy report by Bostwick Laboratories = Gleason 3 + 3.
Interviewed two urologists - the one who did the biopsy and another - the latter had the biopsy slides re-examined = Gleason 3 + 3.
Then went to M. D. Anderson Cancer Center in Houston in July 2008 and met with a urologist and a radiologist. Biopsy slides re-examined yet again, this time by MDA's internal pathology department = Gleason 3 + 4.
Chose da Vinci surgery over proton beam therapy; surgery performed at M. D. Anderson Cancer Center on August 15, 2008. Post-operative pathology report = four tumors, carcinoma contained in prostate, clean (negative) margins, lymph nodes clear, seminal vesicles clear. Gleason = 4 + 3.
Minor temporary incontinence; current extent of ED uncertain due to lack of sexual partner; refused treatments for ED as being pointless under the circumstances.
November 2008 = <0.1 ["undetectable"]
June 2009 = <0.1
December 2009 = <0.1
July 2010 = <0.1