Turning the tables, and using Welch's crystal ball data, that means he suggests that 40% men were NOT over treated. How we can derive that PSA screening does not save lives is preposterous even from this Welch's own words.
The numbers of lives saved are debatable. I think both sides of this USPSTF spurred argument agree that to some point there are lives being saved by PSA screening. It's simple, one side does not feel enough lives are being saved and therefore for the social good it's ok to lose those patients.
You and I can speak for the side that knows that we were fortunate to be tested. The argument from the other side seems to feel that to prevent ED and incontinence outweighs lives like ours. This as opposed to spending some money to educate men and doctors better.
My position is completely unchanged. The diagnosis of prostate cancer through screening is not the problem. What we do with that data requires careful education and decision making and we need doctors to be less gung ho in their "right after diagnosis" recommendations.
Advanced Prostate Cancer at age 44 (I am 49 now)
pT3b,N0,Mx (original PSA was 19.8) EPE, PM, SVI. Gleason 4+3=7
Da Vinci Surgery ~ 2/16/2007
Adjuvant Radiation Therapy ~ IMRT Completed 8/07
Adjuvant Hormone Therapy ~ 28 months on Casodex and Lupron.