Sorry I wasn't clear, tall one. No, it's the same study. The way 24 months came into my discussion with my MO was that 24 months is how long he plans for my ADT3 to last. I was hoping that the study that showed 18 months was as good as thirty would convince him that 18 months must be
as good as 24, too, and he would let me skip the last six months.
His point was that if you look at the raw numbers and ignore the significance you will find that 97.6% survival is better than
96.4% and, while p=0.473 is a total failure to reach the 0.05 level needed to prove
anything, it remains better than even money that there is something there. For overall survival at five years it is pretty darn likely that there is something there.
For all the measures this is true -- ignore the p values and 30 months looks better than 18. The difference is never very big nor does it ever reach 20 to 1 odds of not being accidental but on an even-money bet, based on the study you should bet that 30 months is better than 18. If the best odds you can get are 10 to 1 against then you shouldn't bet (except for overall survival at five years where the 10 to 1 bet would actually look pretty good.)
If we assume, hypothetically, that the 97.6 vs 96.4 difference is real (and that the study was merely underpowered to prove it) one could calculate the number of men you would have to follow to prove it. (One could make that calculation, that is, if one's grasp of statistics was way, way better than mine.) And that would be a lot of men because the hypothesized difference is small.
My point is that the study did not prove that 18 months are as good as 30; it merely failed
to prove that it is not. It remains better than even money that there is a real difference but it's probably fairly small if it exists at all.
Slow PSA rise 2007-2012: 1.4=>8
4 bxs 2010-2012:
1)neg (some inflammation),
3)positive 1 of 14 GS6(3+3) 3-4%, 2nd opinion GS7(3+4)
Mild Pre-op ED
DaVinci RRP 6/14/12. left nerve spared
Path: pT3a pN0 R1 GS9(4+5) Pos margins on rt
Start 24 mo ADT3 7/26/12
Adjuvant IMRT 66.6 Gy 10/17/12 - 12/13/12
Leaky but better, Trimix, VEDForum Moderator - Not a Medical Professional
Post Edited (PeterDisAbelard.) : 9/3/2013 2:10:08 PM (GMT-6)