This is a take off from my thread about
the prognosis for untreated G8-10s. In that thread, some statistics have come up about
the odds of passing from something else first even if you have aggressive PC and even if untreated, and for me those stats were somewhat reassuring, for those of us who have been treated, assuming treatment improves our odds further. And I am pretty sure it does.
So, now looking at it from the standpoint of those of us who have been treated, including those with aggressive PC. Many of us often get a little gloomy or anxious about
our prospects and all we can think about
at times is how we had this cancer inside of us, and how there is a good chance there is still some tiny bit of it left which is going to get us sooner or later. My mind has been known to drift in that direction occasionally, and I bet there are more like me.
So I just saw over at a cancer site that the chance of a man(in the USA I suppose) getting PC is 1 in 7 or 14.3%. Recently we discussed those autopsies on Russian and Asian men(mean age 62-68) who died of something else, with none having been diagnosed with PC. The autopsies revealed that in men age 60 and over, 40% had PC. And 60% of those over 80 had PC. Of the Asian men, 51% of those cancers were G7 or greater. Again, none of these men were diagnosed or treated.www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23847245
Now for a quck look at a few treatment results, one really, only on aggressive. For one, there is the oft quoted study of G8-10s treated with surgery only
This showed that of the 32000 men mean age 62, with RP only, that at 10 years overall survival was 78.6% and 38.6% at 20 yrs, while PC specific survival at 10 yrs was 89.5% and 72.9% at 20 years. Without going into further studies, it may well be that adding ART or SRT and/or HT or choosing a different primary treatment to start with could even give better results.
So what is the point for all of us worriers out there, including Worriedguy?
A few months or years ago, you were oblivious to worry about
PC. Now you might worry a bit, after your treatment.
But if you are sitting in a room full of guys with no known PC, they either(depending on which study you are quoting) have a 14% chance of being Dx with it in the next few years. Or if you go by the Russian/Asian autopsy studies, they have a 40% chance of getting it by age 60(so if you are in a room full of supposedly healthy 60 year olds, 40% likely have it and don't know it) and an 60% have it if you are in a room full of 80 year olds.
But you, the treated cancer patient, even if you had aggressive PC on Dx, and even if you only had surgery, only have a 10% chance of dying from PC within 10 years of treatment, and a 27% chance within 20 years of treatment.
So for all of your undiagnosed 62 year old buddies, they have a 40% chance that they already have it and a 60% chance that they will get it by 80, if you go by those autopsies. Whereas you, now that you have been treated, only have a 10% chance of it doing you in by 10 more years or 27% by 20 more. (For those with less aggressive PC or other treatments, feel free to improve your odds even more)
Maybe all of your buds who are not diagnosed should be at least as worried as you are? Maybe even more worried? Or, maybe I am crazy?
PSA 10.9 ~112013
Bx on 112013 at age 64 yrs 11 months, with 5 of 12 pos with one G9(5+4), 1 PNI, T2B.
RALP with lymph nodes at Vanderbilt 021914. (nodes clear, but SV+, still G9 but down graded to 4+5, cut wide, but 1 tiny foci right at the edge of margin ) Pros. 106.7 gms!
wear one mini-pad after 8 months, mostly dry when removed at night
PSA <.1 on 4/7,
PSA <.01 on 6/11, 8/20/14 and 3/4/15