my PSA increased from 6.8 to 8.07 in 6 months. Given a linear increase, one could conclude that in another 6 months, the PSA would have increased another 1.2 points to 9. Given that cancer cells increase exponentially, I rounded to 10.
Please explain how you came up with 13 and 16.
It is perfectly reasonable that your PSA would have risen some more in 6 months and indeed that it would have increased your extrapolated amount, OR MORE. Certainly mine, after giving me a shock by how much it had increased over several years, went on to increase at an even scarier rate by the time I could get in to the Urol and schedule the Bx. It increased another 20+% in just a few weeks. I never checked one that did not increase, except when I did some home treatment (no, not a DIY RP, just certain supplements) during the 2 months after Bx while waiting for scheduled surgery, when I dropped about
3 points. (Hey, that is how much your are figuring yours probably dropped, based on where you figure it should have gone, coincidence?) That was my only PSA that ever failed to increase -much less decrease- until I had the rat you know what cut out of there.
So YES, you can make that extrapolation if you want to, and you might be right. Or, you might be totally wrong. You might have increased another 1.2 points, or 4, or 0.2. There is just not much way to know. People's PSA can vary with numerous- including non-cancer related- things, like prostatitis for one. Even us guys with no prostates- or who have had them radiated- go through variations and sometimes needless scares. Our PSA may drop to undetectable after surgery, then come back to detectable and steadily increasing by say .01 at a time. And we figure more treatment is imminent because it's going up over some months. Then, with no treatment, it stops or rarely even goes back down a bit. So, how much a PSA is going to rise without treatment is not exactly something that you can make iron clad guarantees about
However in your case, at some point you will probably know if you are onto something helpful. While you can not predict with much accuracy how much your PSA should have gone up, it probably is reasonable to say with diagnosed PC it should have gone up a bit or at least not dropped much. And since PSA is all we have to go by, decreasing PSA is the main indicator of a successful treatment(again, about
all we have to go by) So if you had been radiated and immediately dropped a point or 2, that would be seen as a goods sign while looking for further decreases with only minimal increases over the months(2 steps forward, one back sometimes). If you keep doing what you are doing, and you drop another 2 points in a few months, you may well be on to something. Assuming that most of your past PSA rise was actually caused by your PC(probably was) and not by prostatitis or BPH. Regardless, dropping PSA is IMO a positive sign, especially if it continues dropping. It is the sign you would be looking for if you ad RT, RP or HT.
PSA 10.9 ~112013
Bx on 112013 at age 64 yrs 11 months, with 5 of 12 pos with one G9(5+4), 1 PNI, T2B.
RALP with lymph nodes at Vanderbilt 021914. (nodes clear, but SV+, still G9 but down graded to 4+5, cut wide, but 1 tiny foci right at the edge of margin ) Pros. 106.7 gms!
At 15 months, not wearing a pad most days, mostly dry
PSA <.01 on 6/11, 8/20/14 and 3/4/15, up to .01 on 9/1/15
Post Edited (BillyBob@388) : 12/27/2015 6:07:36 PM (GMT-7)