I went back and changed your pre-op PSA from 5 to 9, and your 15 years alive odds was still 99%. Then I changed it 15 and 20 and the odds were still 99% of NOT having died of PC at 15 years. Or, to quote MSKCC: "This probability means that for every 100 patients like you, 99 will NOT have died from prostate cancer 15 years after surgery, and 1 will have died from prostate cancer within 15 years.".
No, it doesn't say that.
A nomogram never reports anything as 100% certain. Even if it's a tiny, tiny, tiny fraction that will die, it will be reported as 99% probability of not dying. That is not
the same as saying 1 (out of 100) will
die. Words are important.It does not say that? Then I suppose MSKCC should correct themselves, because I did not say it, they did. I agree words are important, so I will repeat the simple copy and paste once again. There was no interpretation from me or paraphrase, but a simple copy and paste from the MSKCC normogram:
This number shows, as a percentage, the probability that you will survive prostate cancer for 15 years following radical prostatectomy. This probability means that for every 100 patients like you, 99 will NOT have died from prostate cancer 15 years after surgery, and 1 will have died from prostate cancer within 15 years.
While I am at it, since this says the odds for Sooner were at worst 1 out of 100 of dying from PC with in 15 years of surgery, I did not bother to give the odds for recurrence as defined by BCR(as opposed to actual clinical recurrence.) So I will give that now just because, even though it is the same 99% odds of no recurrence, with 1 of 100 having BCR:/www.mskcc.org/nomograms/prostate/post-op
Probability of Remaining Recurrence-free After Surgery
10 yr 99%
This number shows, as a percentage, the probability that you will remain free of a recurrence of prostate cancer at 10 years. This probability means that for every 100 patients like you, 99 will remain disease-free 10 years after surgery, and 1 will have a recurrence within 10 years.
Prostate cancer recurrence is present after radical prostatectomy when the PSA measurement has reached 0.2 ng/mL and continues to rise, and has been confirmed as such on a repeat measurement. In general, the longer one remains free of recurrence following surgery, the more favorable one’s likelihood of continuing to remain recurrence-free.
Post Edited (BillyBob@388) : 8/11/2016 7:35:26 AM (GMT-6)