Buddy Blank said...
Seasonality of SARS-CoV-2: Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather?
Marc Lipsitch, DPhil
Professor of Epidemiology and Director, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
(tl;dr) Probably not.
Hope he's wrong, but he seems like a pretty smart fellow.
Yeah, I dunno. Neither does he. If you read his article closely everything he says is a reason it wouldn't be that surprising if it stays around as the weather warms. He is being cautious -- saying that it's not safe to assume that it will let up -- it might --probably will -- but it would be dangerous to count on it.
One thing that has me hopeful that the Wuhan coronavirus will follow the usual seasonal trajectory for influenza is those world maps with the big and little red dots. The big red dots seem more concentrated in the northern temperate zones than the southern. In the north we are in early spring, coming out of winter, and in the south they are just starting to cool off. Doesn't prove anything, of course. Lots of things concentrate in the northern hemisphere -- dry land, for one -- but it strikes me as hopeful.
Here's a link to a big-red-dot map. Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Situation (arcgis.com)
Google will find you others if my link doesn't work.