Buddy Blank said...
Here's what I think Billy:
1.) "The 73-year-old has no background as an epidemiologist..." - public health is not Levitt's area of expertise
2.) the UK never had a lockdown - ................................................................................................................
I really don't know what Levitt is talking about to be honest.
Buddy. I'm not sure I do either. But here is one thing I've been wondering about
: first, assuming you're 100% correct with your statements that so many places have never really done a lockdown. Compared to some other places that have done a much better job of locking down. And then I suppose the places that have done a much better job have also been some of the places that have done much better.
However, the one nation, i.e. Sweden, which has not shut down, has not really done much worse than the average nation. Yes, Sweden has done a good bit worse than her immediately bordering nations, but not any worse, and often a good bit better, than most other nations that are just a very short distance further away from Sweden than those that immediately sit at her border.(over there, going from Sweden to Belgium is not much different than going from east GA to west AL) Also, Sweden shouldn't have much to worry about
regarding a surge when coming out of lockdown, since they did not do so.
In addition, looking at the US states which have done zero (or nearly 0) shut down, these states so far have not only not done any worse than any other state, but several of them have actually done the very best in the nation(for population adjusted death rates). And far better than most nations. Now I realize there are factors like population density and health that could be skewing the results, but still since some of the states have only a small fraction of the death rates of the other states which shut down totally, (well OK, you would say not, that they haven't done a good job of that, and probably you're right, but they certainly done more of a job of shutting down then these three or four other states have), even if after adjusting for population density and such they had a significant increase in death rates, it will still almost certainly be lower than those other states which have done so much more of a shut down. I don't think they are ever going to catch up to them no matter what adjustments are added. Plus, like Sweden, they don't have any concerns about
what kind of surge might be caused by coming out of sheltering in place. Or they shouldn't have it seems to me, unless people flood in from NY or similarly ravaged states.
So, while it might well be that none of the states in the US(as well as many other nations) has shut down as completely or as quickly as they should have, whatever they have done is a LOT more than some, but has not helped them much compared to the few states which did not shut down at all, or even compared to Sweden. So that is a real head scratcher for me. And it also seems that all of the states and nations which have done various degrees of shut down are now very concerned about
what going to happen once they stop doing that.
Not that I know the answer, I surely do not. No way! But it does seem that no matter what we do, the virus is still out there waiting for us, and it's going to work its way all the way through the population either sooner or later, unless they come up with some kind of cure or very effective vaccine.
My hungry herd moves to new green pasture,
I am an old-weak-straggler,
I feel the Covid Lion’s eyes upon me.
Well, RCS, until medical science gives us some sort of drug or vaccine that can do a good job with minimal side effects, if you are an old and weak straggler, I suggest you pay some attention to things that might put the odds more in your favor. And that you look into the four recent studies that have come out each one pointing to low blood vitamin D levels strongly correlated with the most severe COVID-19 outcomes. One from the Philippines, one from Europe as a whole, one from Ireland, and one out of some medical center in Louisiana. And of course all confirming what many previous studies have shown regarding levels of vitamin D in the blood versus various infectious diseases such as flu. Nothing really new here, except these newest studies have been COVID-19 severity specific. Also, many of them are preliminary studies and not yet peer reviewed or RCT and all that business, but that does not mean that they are all worthless and without providing evidence to be considered, not by any means. In the Louisiana study for instance, where they simply decided to measure the blood vitamin D level in some of their hospitalized Covid patients, I could not fail to notice that among the hospitalized patients that did NOT need ICU, only about
50% were vitamin D deficient( I wonder about
the ones that didn't even need the hospital at all?), whereas something like 85% of those in ICU were insufficient ( < 30ng/ml). However, of those less than 75 years old who managed to be sick enough for ICU, 100% were vitamin D insufficient. Another way to put it: NO ONE under age 75 managed to get into their ICU with CV-19 unless they were also vitamin D insufficient. That (100%) is a pretty powerful correlation, especially when combined with all of the previous observations regarding vitamin D and flu/pneumonia/asthma, etc, including 3 randomized control trials showing very significant results from vitamin D supplementation vs flu and asthma attacks. ( but all 3 RCTs were on children, in case someone thinks that matters, and you never know, it might)
So, though there is NOT yet any solid proof on those matters regarding COVID-19, that is the say no large randomized clinical trials, and indeed are not likely to be, there still might be enough there for a reasonable person to think it is worth looking into, especially considering the low cost and risk (there have been no significant side effects that I know of in any of those RCTs). And of course there is the whole vitamin C thingy(again, minimal to zero SEs). And the zinc thing, especially regarding the way hydroxychloroquine works with zinc, supposedly. I may be way out in left field here, but as we await for the scientists to save us with a vaccine, so that we can come back out of our houses without much anxiety, it seems reasonable to me to look into these other potential helps. Particularly if feeling vulnerable, or like an old weak straggler with Covid's eyes upon you. And even if Dr. Fauci won't tell us about
it. But, I might be crazy. Probably am, so just take everything I say with a huge grain of salt!
Post Edited (BillyBob@388) : 5/24/2020 2:31:26 PM (GMT-6)