As we begin to open up, I'm curious about what people think their personal chances of contracting covid-19 are? To the extent that we end 2020 with 10% of the population being affected (I'm pulling that number out of the air), I assume my chances of getting it this year are <10%, since I'm not in any sort of front-line job and I'm naturally more sheltered in my everyday life--even without taking pre-cautions.
But to the extent that covid-19 becomes a seasonal flu-like disease with only a semi-effective vaccine, then maybe I have a 30-40% chance of getting it in my lifetime? Maybe higher? I realize there's so much we don't know at this stage, but very interested in what others think the long-term chances of infection could be.
This is a difficult prediction to make. Except for a weekly trip to the grocery store where they require masks and strictly limit the number of people in the store to allow for social distancing, we are sheltered in place.
I hadn't thought about
the vaccine becoming annual like the flu vaccine, but you may be right about
that. Life will never return to what is was before CV-19. Masks will become a way of life; handshakes and hugs will go away; hygiene and social distancing will be practiced in public places like restaurants, medical and dental offices; more employees will work from home, and so on.
The factor that concerns me about
those times I am in a public place is what I call for lack of a better word, the Jerk Factor, that is, others who don't abide by the new social rules of mask use and social distancing, thereby putting others at risk. Asymptomatic CV-19 carriers are a dangerous unknown factor in all this.