A new model of the pandemic, published recently in a medical journal, discusses specific steps and metrics, and claims that following them will lead to control of the pandemic.
I'm posting about
it because it does indeed list specific, quantifiable measures of progress, maintaining that if these are reached, the pandemic can be brought under control.
The article is based on a study in the Netherlands, but " ... the model is appropriate for other Western countries."
Highlights:"If people washed their hands regularly, wore masks, and kept their social distance from each other, these three simple behaviors could stop most all of the Covid-19 pandemic, even without a vaccine or additional treatments."
"A large epidemic can be prevented if the efficacy of these (three) measures exceeds 50%"
"SARS-CoV-2 will not cause a large outbreak in a country where 90% of the population adopts handwashing and social distancing that are 25% efficacious."
"If we all wore face coverings for the next four, six, eight, twelve weeks, across the nation, this virus transmission would stop."
And especially interesting:"If we have that degree of compliance with these simple measures, our models say that's really as good as shutting it down ... These simple facts can really shut down the outbreak without completely shutting down your local area."
Here's the full article, for those interested:https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003166
If these metrics are right, then they provide us with a timetable for gauging success.
The metrics given above will most likely be debated, but if reliable numbers (measures) like these can indeed be identified, that will give us timeframes to determine if the steps we are taking are proving effective or not.