chance of recurrence after surgery - statistics?

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StrictlyInc
Regular Member


Date Joined Dec 2006
Total Posts : 353
   Posted 2/18/2007 11:12 PM (GMT -7)   
Anyone know of statistics on the chances of recurrence of prostate cancer after prostatectomy, in particular if margins are negative?
____________________
 
Prostate cancer diagnosed:  May 15, 2006 (age 40)
Gleason score:  3+3=6
daVinci radical prostatectomy:  July 25, 2006
size of tumor:  approx 1.1 inches
post-surgery Gleason score:  3+4=7; negative margins from surgery
number of pads/day at 3 months after surgery:  3 to 5
number of pads/day at 4 months after surgery:  1 to 2
1st post-surgery PSA:  0 (Nov 2006)
2nd post-surgery PSA:  0 (Feb 2007)
ongoing post-surgery treatment:  Cialis every other day, Viagra "on-demand", ErecAid pump daily Cialis every other day, ErecAid pump twice daily (when I can manage it)
 


myman
Veteran Member


Date Joined Feb 2007
Total Posts : 1219
   Posted 2/19/2007 8:13 AM (GMT -7)   
Raheeb - Just some thoughts...there are tables that will give you an idea of recurrance (I believe at MSK site) and I understand why the question but like everything else with this disease statistics are only that. Your post PSA is perfect and it sounds as if your recovery from surgery has gone very well. Now I may be wrong (others will address it if that's the case) but since you have 0 PSA at this time it's hard to say if your PSA will EVER rise. You've already experienced the feeling of waiting for the "next bloodwork". To say it's difficult is an understatement. A positive outlook AFTER surgery is important also...not rosecolored glasses but you have good stats to base a positive outlook on!

Wishing you all good things,
Susan
Husband Diagnosed 11/17/05  Age: 63  No Symptoms
PSA: 7.96, Positive DRE
Biopsy Right: 6 of 6 Cores Positive  Biopsy Left: 1 of 6 Cores Positive
Gleason: 4+3 = 7  Stage: T2B N0 MX
2/09/06: LRP  Restage: T3A NX MX 
3 mo. PSA Post Surgery:  11.8, 12.9, 13.9  Bone scan, CT scan, Endorectal MRI, Chest XR - neg.
9/06/06: 6 mo. PSA:  18.8  CT shows lymph node involvement  Start HT Lupron 3 mo. shots
12/06/06: PSA  0.8
03/07/07 - next PSA


bluebird
Veteran Member


Date Joined May 2006
Total Posts : 2542
   Posted 2/19/2007 9:46 AM (GMT -7)   

Hi ~ Raheeb,

 

There are a lot of statistics out there to look at and take in…..

Susan nailed it with her posting.  Get that 1st and 2nd blood work behind us and move forward. 

And coming from Susan and HerMan…. We truly need to take heart in this.  The moving forward in a positive direction…is so important….  Enjoy each day to the fullest and deal what comes our way when we have it placed in front of us.  This stone many of our friends are having to deal with is a random stone and we must respect it at all times…

 

Our recent travels have had many stepping-stones which we have traversed with the ultimate goal of being…. prostate cancer free.   Yes ~  PSA testing stones are always in front of us…. but there are a lot of other stones in between.  And we need to step on each one with a positive attitude and enjoy it for all it’s worth. 

 

We have never been promised that we will see the sun rise tomorrow.  So ~ thinking positive, and not giving any power to this disease is the way we are moving forward.  Are there stones ahead that we need to watch out for…. Definitely!!!!!!!  PSA testing is our Scout!!!!  Let it be our warning sign~our flag if or when the time comes. 

  

The most important thing is that we continue to have the PSA testing.  Just because you have 2,3,4… “undetectables”…. Doesn’t mean you stop having the test…  We must always...keep this testing in our schedule but we don’t have to give our lives over to it.

 

Take One-day-at-a-time and hold it close!!!!! 


mama bluebird - Lee & Buddy… from North Carolina

Link to our personal journey…>>>     Our Journey ~ Sharing is Caring 

April 3, 2006  53 on surgery day

RRP / Radical Retropubic Prostatectomy with "wide excision"

PSA 4.6   Gleason  3+3=6    T2a   Confined to Prostate

2nd PSA 02-06-2007 Less than 0.1 Non-Detectable :)


mozart250
Regular Member


Date Joined Jan 2007
Total Posts : 102
   Posted 2/19/2007 10:11 AM (GMT -7)   
Here is a page on the Sloan-Kettering web site that may be of assistance.
 
Click on "Prostate cancer prediction tool".
 
I clicked "no" on case saving function.
 
What comes up is a pre-treatment nomogram.  But you can click on "Change Treatment Stage" -- "Post Radical Prostectomy" to get the chance of recurrence at that phase.
 
 
June 2006:  PSA 4.6.  DRE prostate enlarged.  
Aug  2006:  Second opinion confirms first.  Biopsy suggested.
Sep  2006:  Biopsy results positive one lobe.  Gleason 3+3.
Nov  2006:  RPA performed at Fletcher Allen in Burlington
Nov  2006:  Analysis of prostate indicates positive margin.
                 New Gleason: 3+4
Dec  2006:  PSA 0.1


biker90
Veteran Member


Date Joined Nov 2006
Total Posts : 1463
   Posted 2/19/2007 10:24 AM (GMT -7)   
Hey Moz, that is a great tool. Thanks...

Jim
Age 72. Diagnosed 11/03/06. PSA 7.05. Stage T2B Gleason 3+3.
RRP 12/7/06. Nerves and nodes okay.
Pathological stage: T2B. Gleason 3+4. Cancer confined to prostate.
PSA on 1/3/07 - 0.04.  Next PSA on 4/4/07.
 
 "Cancer feeds on fear - starve it to death."


StrictlyInc
Regular Member


Date Joined Dec 2006
Total Posts : 353
   Posted 2/19/2007 2:07 PM (GMT -7)   
mozart250 said...
Here is a page on the Sloan-Kettering web site that may be of assistance.
 
Click on "Prostate cancer prediction tool".
 
I clicked "no" on case saving function.
 
What comes up is a pre-treatment nomogram.  But you can click on "Change Treatment Stage" -- "Post Radical Prostectomy" to get the chance of recurrence at that phase.
 
 

Perfect!  Thanks for this!
 
bluebird and myman, thanks for your responses also.  As a mathematician, I am quite aware of statistics and what they are and are not, and of course try to have as positive an outlook as possible.  I am also aware that nothing in this life is guaranteed.  Having said that, I feel the statistics are another piece of information that I wanted to have.  Knowledge is power, after all.  Thanks for the help and positive thoughts!
 
 
____________________
 
Prostate cancer diagnosed:  May 15, 2006 (age 40)
Gleason score:  3+3=6
daVinci radical prostatectomy:  July 25, 2006
size of tumor:  approx 1.1 inches
post-surgery Gleason score:  3+4=7; negative margins from surgery
number of pads/day at 3 months after surgery:  3 to 5
number of pads/day at 4 months after surgery:  1 to 2
1st post-surgery PSA:  0 (Nov 2006)
2nd post-surgery PSA:  0 (Feb 2007)
ongoing post-surgery treatment:  Cialis every other day, Viagra "on-demand", ErecAid pump daily Cialis every other day, ErecAid pump twice daily (when I can manage it)
 


biker90
Veteran Member


Date Joined Nov 2006
Total Posts : 1463
   Posted 2/19/2007 2:14 PM (GMT -7)   
Hey Raheeb,

From another mathematician...

Jim


Age 72. Diagnosed 11/03/06. PSA 7.05. Stage T2B Gleason 3+3.
RRP 12/7/06. Nerves and nodes okay.
Pathological stage: T2B. Gleason 3+4. Cancer confined to prostate.
PSA on 1/3/07 - 0.04.  Next PSA on 4/4/07.
 
 "Cancer feeds on fear - starve it to death."


Swimom
Veteran Member


Date Joined Apr 2006
Total Posts : 1732
   Posted 2/19/2007 3:46 PM (GMT -7)   
Hi Raheeb,
 
Check this article/nomogram out. It is by far, one of the most useful pieces of info we have found.
 
 
Paul / Swim

mozart250
Regular Member


Date Joined Jan 2007
Total Posts : 102
   Posted 2/19/2007 8:16 PM (GMT -7)   
Hi:
Try http://www.cancer.prostate-help.org/download/jhnomo.pdf (spello on prostate) :-)    Anyway thanks for the link
June 2006:  PSA 4.6.  DRE prostate enlarged.  
Aug  2006:  Second opinion confirms first.  Biopsy suggested.
Sep  2006:  Biopsy results positive one lobe.  Gleason 3+3.
Nov  2006:  RPA performed at Fletcher Allen in Burlington
Nov  2006:  Analysis of prostate indicates positive margin.
                 New Gleason: 3+4
Dec  2006:  PSA 0.1


Swimom
Veteran Member


Date Joined Apr 2006
Total Posts : 1732
   Posted 2/19/2007 9:18 PM (GMT -7)   
OOOPS...sorry about that! My spelling is sometimes a little off.
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